Super Bowl 2023 odds: 10 betting trends to know for Chiefs-Eagles
The Super Bowl is finally here! And when it comes to gambling on the Big Game, we have you covered from a trends point of view.
FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into wagering on the Super Bowl by looking at various angles and trends that have historically been profitable.
After wading through the data, here are the 10 best overall trends that caught our attention. Hopefully, these nuggets help you make informed wagers, but more importantly, they’ll make watching the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Kansas City Chiefs a little more exciting.
So, what are we waiting for? Let’s get into the trends!
Did Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts have a better Super Bowl LVII run?
A debate whether QB Patrick Mahomes or QB Jalen Hurts had a better Super Bowl run.
1. Teams that score first in the Super Bowl have won the game 68% of the time
This is a staggering number that jumped off the page. However, while the Los Angeles Rams did score first and win last year, it should be mentioned the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers scored first and both lost. Despite those two outliers, this has been a profitable trend. From 2011-19, all but one of the teams that scored first in the game went on to win. Additionally, 29 of the first 45 Super Bowls saw the team that scored first be victorious.
The lone team from 2011-19 not to score first and win? The New England Patriots in 2017 (2016 season), who were famously down 28-3 in the third quarter but still managed to get a W.
On a side note, live betting has become a fun way to wager on games. This might be the way to go if you like this trend.
2. Betting on the winner in the Super Bowl, more often than not, directly results in a cover against the spread (ATS)
Teams that win the Super Bowl are 47-7-2 ATS in the game, covering at an 87% clip. It should be noted that the Rams did not cover the 4.5-point spread against the Cincinnati Bengals last year, despite winning the game.
This might sound obvious, but in the gambling world, any bet that hits over 60% is stellar. But 80%? That is unheard of, so if you’re confident in who will win the game, bet them to cover as well!
3. Nick Sirianni trends
With Nick Sirianni making his coaching debut in the Super Bowl, we did a deep dive into his performance ATS and SU as a head coach. Here’s what we found:
- Sirianni is 16-17-1 ATS (48.5%) and 23-11 SU (67.6%) as a head coach in regular-season games
- Sirianni is 2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 2-1 SU (66.7%) as a head coach in playoff games
- Sirianni is 13-10-1 ATS (56.5%) and 21-3 SU (87.5%) as a head coach as a favorite (regular season and playoffs)
- Sirianni is 4-0 ATS and 4-0 SU as a head coach when the spread is pick ’em, and a one- to three-point favorite
- Sirianni is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 SU as a head coach vs. the Chiefs in his career, losing in a Week 4 matchup in the 2021 season
4. Andy Reid trends
Unlike Sirianni, coach Andy Reid is no stranger to the Super Bowl, becoming the ninth coach to make four appearances in the big game. Here’s a deep dive on how he’s performed in various betting situations throughout his career:
- Reid is 28-23-4 ATS (54.9%) and 25-30 SU (45.5%) as a head coach as a one- to three-point underdog (regular season and playoffs)
- Reid is 20-16-1 ATS (55.6%) and 21-16 SU (56.8%) as a head coach in all playoff games in his career (Chiefs and Eagles)
- Reid is 9-8-1 ATS (52.9%) and 11-7 SU (61.1%) as the Chiefs head coach in the playoffs
- Reid is 6-3-1 ATS (66.7%) and 3-7 SU (30%) as a head coach when an underdog in the playoffs (Chiefs and Eagles)
- Reid is 0-1-1 ATS and 0-2 SU as the Chiefs head coach when an underdog in the playoffs
- Reid is 2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 1-2 SU (33.3%) as a head coach in the Super Bowl (Chiefs and Eagles)
- Reid is 3-0 ATS and 3-0 SU as a head coach vs. the Eagles in his career
5. Since the 1999 season (2000 Super Bowl), there have been 12 instances of a coach who has coached in a Super Bowl before going up against a coach who has not. In those 12 instances, the coach with Super Bowl experience went 3-8-1 ATS and 7-5 SU
Experience matters right? Not so much over the last 23 years when considering the spread. The coach with Super Bowl experience has lost five of 12 games (41.7%) against coaches making their first big dance. More importantly, from a betting perspective, they’ve covered at just a 27.3% clip in that span. Super Bowl LVII will be Reid’s fourth time coaching the game and Sirianni’s first.
6. The team that rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl historically wins and covers
Look out for who gets an early lead on the rushing total when the Big Game starts, as teams that win the rushing battle in the Super Bowl are an astonishing 39-14-3 ATS (73.6%) and 41-15 SU (73.2%). However, it should be mentioned that the Bengals outrushed the Rams last year and lost. In the regular season, the Eagles were fifth in the league in rushing at 147.6 rush yards per game, while the Chiefs ranked 20th at 115.9.
It should also be mentioned that the Eagles are posting a wild 208.0 rush yards per game average in the postseason, while the Chiefs average has dropped to 93.0.
7. The team that had a better points per game allowed rate in the regular season has been on a tear
Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have won the last seven Super Bowl games and are also 6-1 ATS (85.7%). The last team to win the Super Bowl while sporting a higher points per game allowed average was the Patriots in 2015 (2014 season), who would have lost the game to the Seattle Seahawks had Malcolm Butler not intercepted the ball on the goal line with 20 seconds left.
This season, the Eagles allowed 20.2 PPG in the regular season, while the Chiefs allowed 21.7.
8. The NFC holds the all-time lead in Super Bowls won, but the AFC has dominated the spread in recent years
The NFC holds a 29-27 (51.8%) lead on the AFC in terms of Super Bowl wins and is 28-26-2 ATS (51.9%) as well. However, over the last 10 Super Bowls, the AFC has gone 7-3 ATS (70%) and 6-4 SU (60%). The NFC teams to cover in that span were the 2013 Seahawks, the 2017 Eagles and the 2020 Buccaneers.
9. Mahomes an underdog for the first time in his playoff career
While the Chiefs were underdogs for a great deal of time against the Bengals in the AFC title game, the line ultimately closed with Kansas City being a two-point favorite. However, the Eagles have been steady favorites for the past few days, meaning this could actually be the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ entire career that he is an underdog in the postseason. Below is an overview of how Mahomes has performed in various situations throughout his career, both ATS and SU:
- Mahomes’ largest underdog spread was 4.5 points on the road in a Week 2 matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2018; Chiefs won 42-37
- Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS (87.5%) and 6-3 SU (66.7%) as a starter as an underdog in his career, with the Over hitting in six of those games
- Mahomes has only been a home underdog just once, being 2.5-point underdogs vs. the Bills in Week 6 of this season; Kansas City did not cover and lost straight up (Under hit)
- Mahomes is 25-24 ATS (51.0%) and 40-9 SU (81.6%) as a starter at home, with the Under hitting in 26 of those games (regular season and playoffs)
- Mahomes is 7-4 ATS (63.6%) and 9-2 SU (81.8%) as a starter at home in the playoffs, with the Over hitting in six of those games
10. 24 teams have won both the coin flip and the game all-time in the Super Bowl. In the last eight Super Bowls, the team that has won the toss has lost the game
Only 43% of teams all time have won the Super Bowl after winning the coin toss. Just another thing to keep in mind if you want to throw in a live bet.
The winner of the coin flip has had an unlucky eight-year stretch of losing the game. Will the streak increase to nine this year?
If you are you ready to place some Super Bowl bets after reading the best trends, head over to FOX Bet now!
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