Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl LVII Betting Tips, Trends And Prop Bets
The Big Game is just over a week away, and Super Bowl LVII betting will really kick in days before kickoff in Glendale, Arizona. The Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) are a very slight favorite vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, and the game total is 50.5 points. Both the spread and total are up slightly from the opening numbers, and the Eagles were up to as much as -2.5 Super Bowl favorites this past week but the line has now settled at Eagles -1.5 at most leading online sportsbooks. Many betting tips and trends will be provided for Super Bowl LVII, and here are some to note ahead of kickoff as you scour stats and information you can bet on.
The Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) research team uses four key statistical categories in outlining straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) outcomes in the Super Bowl.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 41-15 SU and 39- 14-3 ATS (73.6%). The Eagles are now 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS when they outrushed opponents this season (including playoffs).
- Passing yards per attempt
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 44-12 SU and 37-16-3 ATS (69.8%).
The team that had fewer turnovers are 37-7 SU and 35-8-1 ATS (81.3%) in the 44 Super Bowls where there was a turnover advantage for either team.
Teams that win the time of possession battle are 41-15 SU and 39-14-3 ATS (73.6%) in the history of the Super Bowl.
Eagles and Chiefs Stats
- The Chiefs are 10-0 straight up against NFC opponents since 2021
- The Eagles are 22-3 straight up when favored since 2021
Teams that won the rushing yards in this year’s playoffs are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS. The Bengals outrushed the Chiefs 71-42 yards but Kansas City won the AFC Championship Game 23-20 as both quarterbacks passed more than 40 times and 65% of each teams offensive plays. The Eagles outrushed the 49ers 148-81 in a 31-7 NFC Championship win and the Giants 268-118 in a 38-7 divisional round win. Philadelphia rushed the ball 44 times in both contests for 63% of their offensive plays in the playoffs.
Strength of Schedule
Per Jeff Sagarin ratings, the Chiefs played the 16th toughest schedule this season and the Eagles 31st (second easiest). In 13 Super Bowls with a strength of schedule (SOS) difference of 10 or more spots, the team that played the better and stronger schedule is 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS. One of those losses was the miraculous Patriots comeback from a 28-3 second half deficit in the 2017 Super Bowl LI to beat the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime. The Patriots played the league’s lowest SOS that season.
The only other team to play a schedule as weak or weaker than the 2022 Eagles is the 2005 Seahawks, who lost 21-10 to the Steelers in Super Bowl XL.
It may be worth noting that of those 10 winners, nine of them played a top-10 strength of schedule and seven of them played a top-five schedule.
Player Prop Bets and Yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Miles Sanders (PHI) – Over/Under 62.5 yards
- Jalen Hurts (PHI) – O/U 49.5 yards
- Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) – O/U 18.5 yards
- Isiah Pacheco (KC) – O/U 48.5 yards
- Jerick McKinnon (KC) – O/U 20.5 yards
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) – O/U 19.5 yards
The Eagles have averaged 154 rushing yards per game including the playoffs this season on a NFL-high 33.3 attempts per game. The Chiefs averaged 114 rushing yards per game on 24.6 attempts per game.
- Jalen Hurts (PHI) – O/U 240.5 passing yards
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) – O/U 292.5 passing yards
Led by the two Super Bowl LVII Most Valuable Player (MVP) co-favorites Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts (+130), the Chiefs and Eagles have both averaged 28.7 points per game this season (including playoffs) to lead the NFL. That includes 32.8 (KC) and 29.4 (PHI) points per game away from home. Both teams played on Bermuda grass surfaces at home – same as State Farm Stadium for Super Bowl LVII.
Jalen Hurts shoulder – Still not 100%, and “something I’m dealing with.”
Patrick Mahomes ankle – “No reaggravation. Just the general little bit of pain I had playing with it (vs Bengals), but other than that, I feel like I’m in a good spot.”
The Eagles and Chiefs both passed for 7.9 yards per attempt this season through the playoffs, including 8.1 (PHI) and 8.6 (KC) yards per pass (YPPL) away from home. Jalen Hurts averaged 246 passing yards per game at 8.0 yards per pass and 22 TD passes in 15 games during the regular season, but just 5.9 YPPL vs the Giants and 4.8 YPPL vs the 49ers with 2 passing TD’s and zero interceptions. Hurts did average 9.7 air yards per throw, his highest mark since suffering the shoulder injury back in Week 15.
Patrick Mahomes averaged 306 passing yards per game at 8.1 YPPL and 41 TD passes in 17 regular season games, but 6.5 YPPL vs the Jaguars and 6.8 YPPL vs the Bengals in the playoffs with 4 TD passes and zero interceptions.
- A.J. Brown (PHI) – O/U 72.5 yards
- DeVonta Smith (PHI) – O/U 63.5 yards
- Dallas Goedert (PHI) – O/U 49.5 yards
- Quez Watkins (PHI) – O/U 12.5 yards
- Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) – O/U 10.5 yards
- Miles Sanders (PHI) – O/U 4.5 yards
- Travis Kelce (KC) – O/U 78.5
- Jerick McKinnon (KC) – O/U 22.5
- Isiah Pacheco (KC) – O/U 15.5 yards
Current game odds and prop bet data from FanDuel Sportsbook, which refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Tip: DeVonta Smith Over 63.5 receiving yards
Stats and information from Sharp Football Analysis.
According to TruMedia, Kansas City uses two-high safeties at the league’s highest rate (54.8%) and offenses typically attack that formation differently than single-high safety coverage.
In Philly’s case, Smith is the primary beneficiary of two-high coverage, based on his target share data from TruMedia:
- 24.9% target share versus single-high
- 28.6% target share versus two-high
The impact in target share is more noticeable when looking at his performance in games with a high usage of two-high coverage.
The Eagles have played four games this season with the defense in two-high coverage at least 40% of the time per TruMedia. Here’s a look at Smith’s numbers in those games:
- Week 2 vs. MIN: 7 catches on 7 targets for 80 yards
- Week 13 vs TEN:5 catches on 8 targets for 102 yards
- Week 16 vs. DAL: 8 catches on 12 targets for 113 yards
- Week 17 vs. NO: 8 catches on 13 targets for 115 yards
That’s three 100-yard performances in four games featuring heavy usage of two-high coverage, and QB Jalen Hurts did not play due to a shoulder injury in Week 16 and Week 17. In Smith’s other 15 games (postseason included), he’s had just two 100-yard outputs.
Kansas City has used two-high coverage at a rate of 40% or higher in all but one game, so we can safely bet on Smith seeing favorable coverage for increased usage in the Super Bowl.
Along with a higher-scoring Super Bowl.
You can bet on it.